The world stands on the brink of a transformative era, as we transition into the sixth technological mode. This new phase, characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and renewable energy, promises to reshape industries and redefine economic paradigms. Currently, we are in the early stages of this transition, marked by rapid technological innovation and the gradual integration of these technologies into various sectors.
During this transition, we can expect significant shifts in the global economy. The integration of AI and automation will lead to unprecedented levels of efficiency in manufacturing and services. For instance, the use of AI in production processes is projected to increase global GDP by up to 14% by 2030, adding approximately $15.7 trillion to the world economy. This surge in productivity will be driven by the ability of AI to optimize supply chains, reduce waste, and enhance product quality.
The transition will also bring about profound changes in the labor market. As automation and AI take over routine tasks, there will be a growing demand for high-skilled workers capable of managing and maintaining these advanced systems. This shift will necessitate significant investments in education and training programs to equip the workforce with the necessary skills. According to the World Economic Forum, already within the next year, 85 million jobs may be displaced by a shift in the division of labor between humans and machines, while 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labor.
In the long term, the sixth technological mode will lead to a revaluation of labor. As production efficiency approaches near-zero marginal costs, the traditional concept of work will undergo a transformation. The rise of the gig economy and remote work, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, is a precursor to this shift. In a future where production costs are minimal, the value of human labor will be increasingly measured by creativity, problem-solving abilities, and emotional intelligence. This revaluation will likely result in shorter workweeks and more leisure time, as the need for human labor in production diminishes.
Specific industries will experience varying impacts during this transition. The healthcare sector, for example, will benefit immensely from advancements in biotechnology and AI. Personalized medicine, powered by genetic engineering and AI-driven diagnostics, will revolutionize patient care, leading to more effective treatments and improved health outcomes. The global market for AI in healthcare is expected to reach $45.2 billion by 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.9% from 2021.
The energy sector will also undergo significant changes as renewable energy technologies become more efficient and cost-effective. Solar and wind power, coupled with advancements in energy storage, will play a crucial role in reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) projects that by 2050, renewables could supply 86% of global power demand, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change.
The transportation industry will be transformed by the adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles. These technologies promise to reduce emissions, improve safety, and enhance the efficiency of transportation networks. The global market for autonomous vehicles is expected to grow from $54.23 billion in 2019 to $556.67 billion by 2026, at a CAGR of 39.47%. This growth will be driven by advancements in AI, sensor technology, and battery efficiency.
The retail sector is also poised for transformation. E-commerce, already a dominant force, will continue to grow, driven by AI and machine learning algorithms that enhance customer experience through personalized recommendations and efficient supply chain management. By 2025, global e-commerce sales are expected to reach $7.4 trillion, up from $4.9 trillion in 2021. Brick-and-mortar stores will need to innovate, integrating digital technologies to offer unique, immersive shopping experiences that cannot be replicated online.
In the financial sector, blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will play a pivotal role. Blockchain’s ability to provide secure, transparent, and decentralized transactions will revolutionize banking, reducing fraud and increasing efficiency. The global blockchain market is projected to grow from $3 billion in 2020 to $39.7 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 67.3%. Cryptocurrencies, while still volatile, are gaining acceptance as legitimate financial instruments, with central banks exploring the development of digital currencies to complement traditional money.
The education sector will undergo significant changes as well. Online learning platforms, enhanced by AI, will provide personalized education experiences, catering to individual learning styles and paces. This will democratize education, making high-quality learning accessible to a broader audience. The global online education market is expected to reach $350 billion by 2025, driven by the increasing adoption of digital learning tools and the need for continuous skill development in a rapidly changing job market.
As we move further into the sixth technological mode, the concept of work will continue to evolve. The traditional 9-to-5 job may become a relic of the past, replaced by more flexible and diverse forms of employment. The gig economy, characterized by short-term contracts and freelance work, will expand, offering individuals greater autonomy and the ability to balance work with personal pursuits. This shift will be facilitated by digital platforms that connect workers with opportunities, enabling them to leverage their skills in a global marketplace.
One of the most profound societal changes anticipated during this transition is the potential implementation of a universal basic income (UBI). As automation reduces the need for human labor, UBI could provide a safety net, ensuring that all citizens have a basic level of financial security. This concept has gained traction in various countries, with pilot programs showing promising results. For example, a UBI trial in Finland found that recipients experienced improved mental health and well-being, even though it did not significantly impact employment rates. The idea is that with a guaranteed income, individuals can pursue education, creative endeavors, or entrepreneurial activities without the constant pressure of financial instability.
The transition to the sixth technological mode represents a paradigm shift that will redefine industries, labor markets, and economic structures. While the journey will be marked by challenges, including the need for significant investments in education and infrastructure, the potential benefits are immense. Increased productivity, improved quality of life, and a more sustainable future are just some of the rewards that await us. As we navigate this transition, it is crucial to embrace innovation, invest in human capital, and foster a regulatory environment that supports sustainable growth. The future is bright, and the sixth technological mode holds the promise of a new era of prosperity and progress.